Your Turn

Hey blog fans...sorry for the long period of time with no posts, but work has gotten the best of me lately. How about rather than giving you the answers, this time I give you some questions.

College football:

- Who will win the National Championship next year and why?
- Is this the year that the rest of the Pac-10 catches up to USC?
- Who is the most overrated player in college football? (My vote: Brady Quinn).

Baseball:

- Who is going to win the AL West? NL West?
- Are the Red Sox invincible? Are they one big trade away from being invincible?
- Why does everyone but Billy Beane seem to think that Barry Zito is getting traded?

Basketball:

- Who is the favorite to win it all next year?
- Is it possible that Big-Benless Detroit would miss the playoffs?
- Why doesn't anyone want AI?

Football:

- Signing Reggie Bush...what took so long?
- Who will be a Cowboy longer...the tuna or T.O.?
- Who will win a Super Bowl first...Peyton or Eli? (My guess...Eli).

Let's get some debate going on any or all of these questions...

American League Musical Playoff Chairs

Though there are three divisions in the American League, there are really two playoff races.

The American League West is its own race...the wild card is not coming out of the AL West, and the Mariners aren't going to win the division, so that race is essentially three teams going for one spot: The A's, Angels, and Rangers.

The other race is between four teams, with three spots available. The wild card will go to a team in either the East or Central, and there are only four real contenders for the playoffs in those divisions. (As much as I like the Blue Jays and Twins, let's get real. Nobody seriously believes that either of them are going to the playoffs). Those contenders are the Red Sox, Yankees, White Sox, and Tigers.

Seven teams, four spots. Who will be playing in October?

AL WEST:

First off, let's eliminate Texas. They have great offensive firepower, and their pitching looks better than it has in the past, but they still don't have enough on the mound to get it done in a cut-throat division like the AL West. The Rangers seem to do the same thing every year, looking like a contender in the first half of the season, and fading away after the All-Star Break. The story is all too familiar for Rangers fans, and it looks like history will repeat itself this year.

That leaves us with the A's and Angels. The winner of this race will be dictated by who can stay healthy. Both teams have injuries to key players. The A's have been missing Rich Harden for most of the year, have had to call up virtually every pitcher the Sacramento River Cats have at some point in the season to bolster their crippled bullpen, and now Eric Chavez is complaining of tendinitis in his forearms. Bottom line: if the A's can't get Harden pitching and can't keep Chavy on the field, they can probably forget about holding off the Angels.

The Angels have health issues of their own, particularly in the starting rotation. Kelvim Escobar was just placed on the 15 day DL. Jered Weaver, savior of the Angels and probably a future Cy Young winner, is having issues with his right shoulder. If the Angel's don't get these two back in the rotation and pitching their best by mid-August, they won't catch the A's.

So what happens if both teams get healthy? Advantage: A's. A healthy Harden means the A's win the West. A healthy Harden with a healthy Chavy and healthy A's generally means the A's can win the World Series. Even with a strong rotation, the Angels are too young and not talented enough to beat a healthy A's team down the stretch, a team which tends to do very well in August.

What happens if neither team gets healthy? Advantage: A's, slightly. The A's are a much deeper team than the Angels. The A's have some legitiamte options if they don't get Harden back. Jason Windsor looked good (although nervous) in his debut in Baltimore, giving up only one earned run in five innings. Halsey and Sarloos are both experienced starting pitchers who can get the job done. The A's aren't a title contender without Harden, but they can still win the West. They might even be able to do without Eric Chavez, if the pitching stays as good as it has been. The Angels absolutely have to have Jered Weaver, and he needs to come out and win almost every game (which, for him, shouldn't be a problem). Escobar is a great fifth pitcher, but the Angels have nothing behind him.

My prediction: A's win the west, but not by much. Both teams should get healthy in time to make the AL West a great race to watch, and will leave Texas in their dust.

THE REST OF THE AL:

One spot down, three to go. Red Sox, Yankees, Tigers, White Sox. Believe it or not, one of those teams will miss the playoffs. But who?

RED SOX: Can we all just agree right off the bat that this Red Sox team is not missing the playoffs? I won't say that they are going to win their division for sure, but they are simply not going to miss the playoffs. Their offense is just too much. Manny and Big Papi are the most dangerous duo in all of baseball right now, Mike Lowell has been producing, Kevin Youkilis is the best leadoff hitter in baseball (yes, I would take him over Ichiro), and they have a young closer who is definitely getting the job done. Boston's starting rotation is a bit suspect, but they have a big name ace at the front in Curt Shilling, and Josh Beckett should get better as he adjusts to the AL game. They also have a rookie, Lester, who has pitched well and will win games. The Red Sox will be there.

YANKEES: The Yankees, on the other hand, are far from a sure thing. Injuries have torn apart their stellar lineup, and Bernie Williams ain't what he used to be. Like the Red Sox, the Yankees only have one reliable starting pitcher in Mussina (although Wang has pitched well, and Randy Johnson is still Randy Johnson). Unlike the Red Sox, the Yankees no longer boast an overwhelming, ridiculously stacked offense. After A-Rod, Giambi, Jeter, Damon, and Posada, the Yanks don't have much. That's four consistent outs in their lineup, which, with their pitching, shouldn't be good enough. Still, these are the New York Yankees, and the New York Yankees don't miss the playoffs. I expect that they will do something bold before the trade deadline, and get just enough to squeeze out the wild card.

TIGERS: Few people thought that we'd be talking about the Tigers at this point in the year, and yet here we are. It starts with their starting rotation, which has been far and away the best in the majors. Kenny Rogers, the starter for the AL in the All Star game, is a Cy Young candidate this year. A better candidate is his teammate, Justin Verlander, a Tigers farm product who is going to be their building block for the future. Jeremy Bonderman, a former A's draft pick, is developing into an ace in his own right. Nate Robertson has been getting it done all year as well. Even the five in the Tiger rotation, rookie Zach Miner, boasts an ERA under 3.50. Pudge has these kids pitching lights out, and there's no sign of it letting up. Even if it does, the Tigers have built a pretty solid lead in the AL Central, and have a pretty solid offense anchored around Magglio Ordonez. I think the Tiger window of opportunity is small, as they are relying as much on their aging veterans as they are on their young pitching staff (some of whom still benefit from the lack of film and scouting reports available on them). To make the playoffs, they will have to outplay the defending World Series champs...

WHITE SOX: The White Sox are slipping, and don't look as good as they did last year. The starting rotation appears to have been exposed. The bullpen isn't great, with the exception of ROY candidate Bobby Jenks. The offense is producing, but not as well as it could. The manager's mouth keeps getting him in trouble, which is a distraction.

Still, I think the White Sox make the playoffs. The Sox pitching will need to make the right adjustments, but the offense will keep them afloat until the pitching can come together. The Sox will probably make a move to pick up a center fielder, and the rest of their lineup is rock solid. Most importantly, the White Sox are a better team than they have showed so far this year. They have underperformed while the Tigers have overperformed. In baseball, there are 162 games in a season, so things tend to even themselves out. Look for the White Sox to right the ship in the second half, and look for the overachieving Tigers to slip back to reality.

FEARLESS PREDICTIONS:

AL East: Red Sox
AL Central: White Sox
AL West: A's
AL Wildcard: Yankees

Divisional Playoffs: A's over Red Sox in 5; Yankees over White Sox in 4.
ALCS: A's over Yankees in 6.

Note that this assumes a healthy Rich Harden. Without Harden, the A's probably don't even make the playoffs, and the Red Sox go back to the World Series to beat up on whoever they face.

LeBron vs. MJ and the Battle for NBA Supremacy

It is difficult to compare Jordan and LeBron because they are a different sort of player. Kobe/MJ comparisons are easier because their style and skill set are similar. MJ is clearly better than Kobe at Kobe's own game. Comparing MJ to LeBron is not as easy, because LeBron's game is tougher, grittier, and more versatile than MJ's. Despite the fact that it is probably pointless, here's my effort to compare LeBron and MJ. This is LeBron now vs. MJ in his prime.

LEBRON VS. MJ

Shooting/scoring: MJ has the edge here, although not a huge edge. LeBron will probably never be quite the scorer MJ was, but he'll be more than good enough.

Rebounding: LeBron. Duh.

Passing: Again, clearly LeBron, who is more than capable of playing PG effectively.

Creating mismatches: LeBron, but not by much. MJ didn't create mismatches as much as he was just very difficult (at times impossible) to defend. LeBron is tough to defend because he is a big, strong player who can do things that big, strong players shouldn't be able to do. Anyone against LeBron James is a mismatch, but the same was true of MJ, although, I think, for different reasons.

Drawing double teams: Tie. They both should be doubled at all times. Maybe tripled. However, MJ was more adept at splitting those doubles (maybe the best of all time at it), while LeBron is more capable of creating opportunities for teammates out of the double with his superior passing skills. Again, tough to compare.

Defense: Probably a toss-up at this point. Both are very good but not outrageously great defenders. LeBron will improve and this will be another category where he gets the edge.

Leadership: MJ by a mile. LeBron has great potential here, and it will come with time. LeBron may never have MJ's charisma, but he can at least come close.

Final Analysis: The way I see it, LeBron is probably slightly less valuable now than Jordan was in his prime, but due to the type of player LeBron is, his potential value is much greater than that of MJ in his prime. LeBron shouldn't be crowned "the next Jordan" because he's a very different player. However, he is definitely the heir to Jordan's throne as the dominant force of NBA basketball.

Other candidates for NBA World Domination include:

Dwayne Wade: A player more in the mold of Jordan, but he's not even the best Jordan look-alike in the league right now. (That's still Kobe). We'll see what Wade is made of when old age and cap restraints gut the Heat.

Dirk: Incredible at creating mismatches, at times looks like a taller and more athletic Larry Bird. Can be unstoppable. Can also be pathetic. Jordan didn't take days off, especially not in the NBA Finals.

Kobe: Kobe has reached his potential, and it isn't quite up there with Jordan. At least now he can say he's the best player on his team.

McGrady: Huge talent, no effort, no drive, no competitive fire, and a lot of injuries. Still could wind up in the Hall of Fame if he can team up with Yao and win a title or two, but the clock is ticking on that...the NBA will soon be LeBron's world, and McGrady will be watching just like the rest of us.

Shaq: Sorry, Diesel. Your time has come and gone. Shaq was the most dominant force in the league for years, but it's clearly over.

Greg Oden: Possibly the next Shaq. Possibly better. May take over after LeBron's reign ends, though he isn't that much younger than LeBron.

Cleveland Rocks

LeBron James has reportedly accepted a five year contract extension for about $16 million a year to stay in Cleveland and play for the Cavs. This is probably the biggest thing that has happened in the history of sports in Cleveland. First off, it virtually guarantees that at least one NBA championship will come to Cleveland within the next few years. Probably more than one. Secondly, it gives the city of Cleveland a legitimate sports star, something they haven't had since Bernie Kosar. (Travis Hafner doesn't count. Neither does Jim Thome, who flew the coup. Kellen Winslow Jr. DEFINITELY does not count). And, with all due respect to the sidearm slinger, Kosar is no LeBron.

LeBron James will dominate the NBA the way that MJ used to, and the way that Shaq did up until a few years ago. He's the next big thing, no doubt about it. There are a few other big time young players in the NBA, but none of them come anywhere close to LeBron. Sure, there's big talk about Dwayne Wade now...but once Shaq is gone, the Heat will look a lot like last year's Lakers. Dwayne Wade alone is not enough. LeBron James alone probably is. Carmelo, Bosh, Dwight Howard, Andrea Bargnani, Yao Ming, Andrew Bogut...all great young players to build a team around, but none are good enough to carry a team on their back to a championship. All need some help. Wade can carry a good team, but LeBron could carry a bad team. He's that good.

LeBron's presence will also attract big name free agents who want a championship and who otherwise would not be willing to play in such a small market. It is up to the Cavs organization to use this opportunity to build something around LeBron. Though he is probably capable of doing it alone, it would be nice to get him some help other than a good but aging Lithuanian center. Larry Hughes is a good start, but if the Cavs want LeBron to retire in Cleveland, they'll need to do better.

I envision the major rivalry of the Eastern Conference in the near future as Cleveland and Chicago. The Bulls have built a tremendous young team around some terriffic drafts. Ben Gordon may be the league's most underrated young player, Kirk Heinrich is one of the league's best shooters, Luol Deng has always been solid, and with the addition of a legit star in Ben Wallace and another young phenom in Tyrus Thomas, Chicago will be LeBron's primary nemisis. If I were the Bulls organization, I would start focusing on putting together a team that can be kryptonite to LeBron's Superman skills right away. The high powered offenses of the Mavs and Kings were basically a failed attempt to beat Shaquille O'Neal by outrunning him. I'm not sure what weakness LeBron has to exploit, but if I'm the Bulls, I'm in the film room 24/7 trying to find it, and then hitting the phones to get the personnel capable of exploiting it.

Enjoy that title, Dwayne. It's a matter of time before this becomes LeBron's world.