NFL Draft 2007
Here's my guess for what's going to go down with the top 5 picks in the draft:
1) Raiders -- JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU. Al Davis tips his hand by letting Aaron Brooks walk. Tui is likely to walk as well, meaning that there will be only one QB on the Raider roster, Andrew Walter. Walter will start next year while Russell gets ready to be the man in Lane Kiffin's USC-ish offense. Russell should be a good QB in this league. Comparisons to Culpepper and Leftwich appear to have a lot to do with his size (and race), and not much to do with his skill set. His legitimate similarity to Culpepper/Leftwich is that he's tough to sack, but Russell seems to have a better arm than either of them. The major advantage Quinn has over Russell is that he is more "NFL ready," but Al Davis is very unlikely to care much about that. I think Davis still likes Andrew Walter, and thus Walter will get his shot to prove he's worthy of starting in the NFL, while Russell carries a clipboard for a year or two and develops into a star. Hopefully, by then, the Raiders will have at least a decent offensive line to put in front of him.
2) Lions -- Joe Thomas, OT, Wisconsin. Millen will be very tempted to take Calvin Johnson here, but he wouldn't dare. Johnson might be the right pick here, but if Millen takes another WR with an early first round pick, he might find himself wearing concrete shoes at the bottom of Lake Michigan. Instead, Millen will go conservative for a change and take a badly needed offensive lineman. I think this pick is likely to be traded...good chance someone moves up to grab Brady Quinn. Maybe the Texans, Dolphins, or Vikings will make a move here. Also possible that Arizona trades up to take Joe Thomas. Otherwise, the Lions take Thomas, or a defensive lineman (Branch or Anderson). But not Johnson. No way.
3) Browns -- Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech. Johnson is a big time talent who could develop into the perfect home run threat WR to complement Braylon Edwards, who is more of a possession receiver type. Chances are very good that Johnson is available here, and the Browns would be foolish to pass him up. A lot of mock drafts have Adrienne Peterson going here. I think Peterson is a great back and well worth a #3 pick, but the Browns just spent a bunch of money on Ruben Droughns, so I doubt they will be spending their top pick on another bruiser RB. They should take a RB in this draft, but would be better off getting a speedy guy in a later round...maybe Louisville's Mike Bush in round 2.
4) Bucs -- Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame. Why isn't anyone talking about this possibility? Gruden has a stable full of crappy QB's right now. He has Rattay, who can fill the role of veteran mentor. He has McCown, who can't win anywhere. They have Chris Simms, who can't stay healthy and isn't that good anyway. Last year he had to resort to playing Gradkowski, a 6th round pick out of Toledo...and he might have outperformed the other three. This is a franchise in need of a franchise QB, and Gruden is just the guy to continue Charlie Weis's job of making Brady Quinn look better than he really is. Gruden has said some very positive things about Quinn publicly. If Quinn is not available (i.e. if someone swaps with the Lions to take him), they may take Joe Thomas if he falls here, or, failing that, one of the two top DL's (Branch or Anderson).
5) Cardinals -- Alan Branch, DL, Michigan. Assuming Joe Thomas is off the board at this point, and assuming the Cardinals stay put, the best player on the board at this point is Branch. This is also an area of need for the Cards, who need to shore up the talent of their D line to answer the emerging running game of conference foes like the 49ers' Frank Gore.
Other thoughts:
-- Assuming the Texans don't move up (and move Carr) to take a QB, they should take one of the two top RB's in the draft, Peterson or Lynch. My guess is they take Peterson, though Lynch may be a better fit. The one who doesn't go to the Texans may end up with the Bills, if Buffalo deals McGahee to the Giants, as is rumored. If that doesn't happen, either Peterson or Lynch will likely fall to the tundra wasteland that is the Green Bay Packers.
-- A lot of people have Quinn plummeting, and it certainly could happen. If he isn't in the top 5, the Vikings want to stick with Jackson/Johnson for now, the Texans stick with Carr, and the Dolphins are comfortable that Culpepper's knee will heal and Joey Harrington is an adequate insurance policy, Quinn could find himself at #14 with the Carolina Panthers, or even #17 with the Jags. Definitely disappointing. Still, I feel like someone will make a move like the Broncos did last year with Cutler to come up and grab Quinn before he falls too far.
-- Greg Olsen, TE from Miami, is a dark horse top 10 pick. I'd be very surprised to see him fall out of the top 20...and whatever team picks him up is going to be very happy they did. He's as talented as Shockey, but with a better work ethic and without the redneck side show antics. His blocking is so-so, but he has amazing speed and hands for a guy his size and will create matchup nightmares for defensive coordinators. Safeties will have trouble keeping up with this guy...linebackers can forget it.
-- The 49ers need Ted Ginn, Jr. NEED him. He is exactly what their offense is missing.
-- Calvin Johnson has the most upside, and Ginn's speed will make him a star in the NFL eventually, but my favorite WR in this draft is Robert Meachem. I think he lands with the Titans and takes over Drew Bennett's role as a go to possession receiver for Vince Young. (Bennett is up for free agency, and someone is going to throw a big pile of money at him. Couldn't happen to a better guy).
-- Guys who probably won't be first rounders, but should be: LaMarr Woodley, Brandon Mebane, Tim Crowder, Ryan Kalil.
-- Some potential late round steals this year -- Selvin Young, Trent Edwards, John Beck, Mason Crosby, Desmond Bishop, Mkristo Bruce, Prescott Burgess, Limas Sweed.
-- Drew Tate probably will not get drafted at all...but he should be. He is a Doug Flutie type -- he is undersized and does not have all of the tools you look for, but he has a way of firing up the offense and winning games. He is a gamer, and probably a future star in the CFL or NFL Europe...but he will likely never get his shot in the NFL, which is too bad, because I think he could be good.
-- Biggest sleeper pick of this draft -- Steve Smith, WR, USC. Jarrett gets all the attention, Smith gets all the receptions. Amazing how little attention this guy is getting. He was the best player on USC's offense last year.
-- Early picks for Rookie of the Year next year -- Offensive: Marshawn Lynch if he goes somewhere other than the Packers. Otherwise, Ginn or Peterson. Defensive: Paul Poluszny.
1) Raiders -- JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU. Al Davis tips his hand by letting Aaron Brooks walk. Tui is likely to walk as well, meaning that there will be only one QB on the Raider roster, Andrew Walter. Walter will start next year while Russell gets ready to be the man in Lane Kiffin's USC-ish offense. Russell should be a good QB in this league. Comparisons to Culpepper and Leftwich appear to have a lot to do with his size (and race), and not much to do with his skill set. His legitimate similarity to Culpepper/Leftwich is that he's tough to sack, but Russell seems to have a better arm than either of them. The major advantage Quinn has over Russell is that he is more "NFL ready," but Al Davis is very unlikely to care much about that. I think Davis still likes Andrew Walter, and thus Walter will get his shot to prove he's worthy of starting in the NFL, while Russell carries a clipboard for a year or two and develops into a star. Hopefully, by then, the Raiders will have at least a decent offensive line to put in front of him.
2) Lions -- Joe Thomas, OT, Wisconsin. Millen will be very tempted to take Calvin Johnson here, but he wouldn't dare. Johnson might be the right pick here, but if Millen takes another WR with an early first round pick, he might find himself wearing concrete shoes at the bottom of Lake Michigan. Instead, Millen will go conservative for a change and take a badly needed offensive lineman. I think this pick is likely to be traded...good chance someone moves up to grab Brady Quinn. Maybe the Texans, Dolphins, or Vikings will make a move here. Also possible that Arizona trades up to take Joe Thomas. Otherwise, the Lions take Thomas, or a defensive lineman (Branch or Anderson). But not Johnson. No way.
3) Browns -- Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech. Johnson is a big time talent who could develop into the perfect home run threat WR to complement Braylon Edwards, who is more of a possession receiver type. Chances are very good that Johnson is available here, and the Browns would be foolish to pass him up. A lot of mock drafts have Adrienne Peterson going here. I think Peterson is a great back and well worth a #3 pick, but the Browns just spent a bunch of money on Ruben Droughns, so I doubt they will be spending their top pick on another bruiser RB. They should take a RB in this draft, but would be better off getting a speedy guy in a later round...maybe Louisville's Mike Bush in round 2.
4) Bucs -- Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame. Why isn't anyone talking about this possibility? Gruden has a stable full of crappy QB's right now. He has Rattay, who can fill the role of veteran mentor. He has McCown, who can't win anywhere. They have Chris Simms, who can't stay healthy and isn't that good anyway. Last year he had to resort to playing Gradkowski, a 6th round pick out of Toledo...and he might have outperformed the other three. This is a franchise in need of a franchise QB, and Gruden is just the guy to continue Charlie Weis's job of making Brady Quinn look better than he really is. Gruden has said some very positive things about Quinn publicly. If Quinn is not available (i.e. if someone swaps with the Lions to take him), they may take Joe Thomas if he falls here, or, failing that, one of the two top DL's (Branch or Anderson).
5) Cardinals -- Alan Branch, DL, Michigan. Assuming Joe Thomas is off the board at this point, and assuming the Cardinals stay put, the best player on the board at this point is Branch. This is also an area of need for the Cards, who need to shore up the talent of their D line to answer the emerging running game of conference foes like the 49ers' Frank Gore.
Other thoughts:
-- Assuming the Texans don't move up (and move Carr) to take a QB, they should take one of the two top RB's in the draft, Peterson or Lynch. My guess is they take Peterson, though Lynch may be a better fit. The one who doesn't go to the Texans may end up with the Bills, if Buffalo deals McGahee to the Giants, as is rumored. If that doesn't happen, either Peterson or Lynch will likely fall to the tundra wasteland that is the Green Bay Packers.
-- A lot of people have Quinn plummeting, and it certainly could happen. If he isn't in the top 5, the Vikings want to stick with Jackson/Johnson for now, the Texans stick with Carr, and the Dolphins are comfortable that Culpepper's knee will heal and Joey Harrington is an adequate insurance policy, Quinn could find himself at #14 with the Carolina Panthers, or even #17 with the Jags. Definitely disappointing. Still, I feel like someone will make a move like the Broncos did last year with Cutler to come up and grab Quinn before he falls too far.
-- Greg Olsen, TE from Miami, is a dark horse top 10 pick. I'd be very surprised to see him fall out of the top 20...and whatever team picks him up is going to be very happy they did. He's as talented as Shockey, but with a better work ethic and without the redneck side show antics. His blocking is so-so, but he has amazing speed and hands for a guy his size and will create matchup nightmares for defensive coordinators. Safeties will have trouble keeping up with this guy...linebackers can forget it.
-- The 49ers need Ted Ginn, Jr. NEED him. He is exactly what their offense is missing.
-- Calvin Johnson has the most upside, and Ginn's speed will make him a star in the NFL eventually, but my favorite WR in this draft is Robert Meachem. I think he lands with the Titans and takes over Drew Bennett's role as a go to possession receiver for Vince Young. (Bennett is up for free agency, and someone is going to throw a big pile of money at him. Couldn't happen to a better guy).
-- Guys who probably won't be first rounders, but should be: LaMarr Woodley, Brandon Mebane, Tim Crowder, Ryan Kalil.
-- Some potential late round steals this year -- Selvin Young, Trent Edwards, John Beck, Mason Crosby, Desmond Bishop, Mkristo Bruce, Prescott Burgess, Limas Sweed.
-- Drew Tate probably will not get drafted at all...but he should be. He is a Doug Flutie type -- he is undersized and does not have all of the tools you look for, but he has a way of firing up the offense and winning games. He is a gamer, and probably a future star in the CFL or NFL Europe...but he will likely never get his shot in the NFL, which is too bad, because I think he could be good.
-- Biggest sleeper pick of this draft -- Steve Smith, WR, USC. Jarrett gets all the attention, Smith gets all the receptions. Amazing how little attention this guy is getting. He was the best player on USC's offense last year.
-- Early picks for Rookie of the Year next year -- Offensive: Marshawn Lynch if he goes somewhere other than the Packers. Otherwise, Ginn or Peterson. Defensive: Paul Poluszny.
posted by AdmiralLando at 11:18 PM
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