The Fallout
Following California's collapse at Tennessee, the conventional wisdom amongst pundits and analysts is beginning to emerge, and it is ridiculous. Insane. It's as though none of them actually watched the game. Here's the truth versus the conventional wisdom:
THE TRUTH:
Cal was not ready for this game. They had an inexperienced quarterback running a new offense that does not effectively exploit his skills. Worse yet, Cal lost one of the Pac 10's best cover corners in Tim Mixon, and replaced him with a talented but very green redshirt freshman who flat out got beaten by Robert Meachem, a 6-3, 210 pound junior. Basically, that was your ballgame. Throughout most of the first half, it looked like Cal would go into the locker room at the half down a touchdown, come out with some adjustments, and make this into the relatively low scoring defensive struggle that most were expecting. Instead, David Cutliffe and Robert Meachem exploited Syd'Quan Thompson's inexperience (both in Division I college football and at the corner position...Thompson was recruited as an "athlete" and has never been a pure cover corner), Meachem got by Thompson as the half was ending, and Cal went down by two scores at the half. That made a pretty big difference. Then, Tennessee comes out of the gate after halftime and does the exact same thing...short out pattern to Meachem, Thompson foolishly goes for the pick, and Meachem takes it to the house. At that point it was 21-0, and the game was over. Most of what happened after that was irrelevant to the outcome.
That's it. That's what happened. On offense, Tennessee recognized an obvious mismatch and successfully exploited it twice. On defense, Tennessee stood relatively strong against the run, forcing Longshore to try to win it with his arm, which he wasn't going to be able to do in an unfamiliar offense poorly suited to his talents. It didn't help that his receivers kept dropping balls, either.
So, if Cal starts Bundy at corner instead of Thompson, if they didn't run out of shotgun formation so much, if they give the ball to Marshawn Lynch at least ten more times throughout the game, and if the Cal receivers only drop 4 balls instead of 8, this would have been the game we thought we would see. Instead, Thompson choked, Lynch was stifled by a lack of carries and a bad offensive game plan, and Cal's receivers had butter fingers. That's why they lost. That's it. Period. It wasn't because Tennessee was all that good. It was because a few key parts of Cal's game were just flat out bad.
CONVENTIONAL WISDOM:
Now, here's what really pisses me off. This is what commentators have been saying, and the way this game will be viewed by "experts":
(1) David Sutcliffe is a genius!
Sutcliffe is Tennessee's new offensive coordinator. There was a lot of talk that he would come in, restore Ainge's confidence, and bring a new attitude to the Vol's offensive attack. Maybe that will happen, but there was really no sign of it against Cal. Tennessee did one thing well: they found a mismatch and exploited it by isolating an inexperienced corner against a pretty good wideout. That's all they needed to do. It doesn't take a genius to do that.
(2) Eric Ainge is back!
Garbage. Eric Ainge had inflated numbers because of two big plays to Meachem, both of which were five yard out patterns that any high school quarterback could have thrown. Other than that, his performance was fairly pedestrian. He didn't make any huge mistakes, and he didn't blow it...but that doesn't make him the second coming of Peyton Manning. Ainge is pretty much what he was last year...a good enough but not great QB.
Tennessee plays against Florida, LSU, and Georgia this year...watch for Tennessee to be held to less than 10 points in each of those games.
(3) Cal was overrated.
Let's get this straight...no team in the Pac 10 is ever overrated. Ever. When a Pac 10 team gets national attention, it's with good reason. Cal is no exception. This team is very, very good.
They do, however, have some glaring flaws that were exposed by Tennessee. Their offensive scheme does not match their personnel. They have a weakness at corner opposite Hughes. Their QB position is unsettled. These are problems that Tennessee did a great job of exploiting, but they do not mean that Cal doesn't deserve the national spotlight this year. If Cal can put together an offensive scheme that matches their personnel and put Bundy in at corner until the light switches on for Syd'Quan Thompson, Cal is capable of running the table going forward. More realistically, Cal is probably looking at a 9-3 season, which should still put them in the top 20. On the other hand, if Cal can't get its act together, this year could be a disaster for the program.
(4) See! The Pac 10 is soft!
Come on. Unlike most power conferences, the Pac 10 actually bothered to slate decent competition in week 1, and went 6-2 in out-of-conference play (the two losses being conference doormat WSU getting beaten by #4 Auburn and Cal's loss). The wins include USC's pounding of Arkansas for the second straight year (on what is supposed to be a rebuilding year for them), UCLA dominating a pretty good Utah team, and Arizona winning against BYU, a bowl team last year who will likely go bowling again this year. These are not Division I-AA teams that the Pac 10 is beating up on. These are quality opponents.
Bottom line: the fact that Syd'Quan Thompson hasn't learned how to tackle yet does not speak to the talent level of an entire conference. That conclusion is absolutely ridiculous. Unfortunately, perception is reality when it comes to the level of respect a conference gets, and a lot of armchair quarterbacks are going to read the score from Vols/Bears and conclude that the Pac 10 doesn't deserve respect.
The Pac 10 will have a strong year. USC has reloaded and is a title contender. Cal should be able to pull it together. Oregon looks extremely good and is a dark horse to win the conference in a year of Pac 10 parity. Arizona State, as usual, has one of the best offensive attacks in the country. Arizona is looking like an up-and-comer with Mike Stoops at the helm. Washington and Stanford should be turning it around soon as well. The Pac 10 is a strong conference this year, and will show it when the bowls come. Unfortunately, we will probably have to endure a lot of stupid comments about the Pac 10 for the remainder of the season, and it's largely because of this game.
Syd'Quan Thompson can't tackle, therefore the entire Pac 10 conference is weak. Thanks, experts.
THE TRUTH:
Cal was not ready for this game. They had an inexperienced quarterback running a new offense that does not effectively exploit his skills. Worse yet, Cal lost one of the Pac 10's best cover corners in Tim Mixon, and replaced him with a talented but very green redshirt freshman who flat out got beaten by Robert Meachem, a 6-3, 210 pound junior. Basically, that was your ballgame. Throughout most of the first half, it looked like Cal would go into the locker room at the half down a touchdown, come out with some adjustments, and make this into the relatively low scoring defensive struggle that most were expecting. Instead, David Cutliffe and Robert Meachem exploited Syd'Quan Thompson's inexperience (both in Division I college football and at the corner position...Thompson was recruited as an "athlete" and has never been a pure cover corner), Meachem got by Thompson as the half was ending, and Cal went down by two scores at the half. That made a pretty big difference. Then, Tennessee comes out of the gate after halftime and does the exact same thing...short out pattern to Meachem, Thompson foolishly goes for the pick, and Meachem takes it to the house. At that point it was 21-0, and the game was over. Most of what happened after that was irrelevant to the outcome.
That's it. That's what happened. On offense, Tennessee recognized an obvious mismatch and successfully exploited it twice. On defense, Tennessee stood relatively strong against the run, forcing Longshore to try to win it with his arm, which he wasn't going to be able to do in an unfamiliar offense poorly suited to his talents. It didn't help that his receivers kept dropping balls, either.
So, if Cal starts Bundy at corner instead of Thompson, if they didn't run out of shotgun formation so much, if they give the ball to Marshawn Lynch at least ten more times throughout the game, and if the Cal receivers only drop 4 balls instead of 8, this would have been the game we thought we would see. Instead, Thompson choked, Lynch was stifled by a lack of carries and a bad offensive game plan, and Cal's receivers had butter fingers. That's why they lost. That's it. Period. It wasn't because Tennessee was all that good. It was because a few key parts of Cal's game were just flat out bad.
CONVENTIONAL WISDOM:
Now, here's what really pisses me off. This is what commentators have been saying, and the way this game will be viewed by "experts":
(1) David Sutcliffe is a genius!
Sutcliffe is Tennessee's new offensive coordinator. There was a lot of talk that he would come in, restore Ainge's confidence, and bring a new attitude to the Vol's offensive attack. Maybe that will happen, but there was really no sign of it against Cal. Tennessee did one thing well: they found a mismatch and exploited it by isolating an inexperienced corner against a pretty good wideout. That's all they needed to do. It doesn't take a genius to do that.
(2) Eric Ainge is back!
Garbage. Eric Ainge had inflated numbers because of two big plays to Meachem, both of which were five yard out patterns that any high school quarterback could have thrown. Other than that, his performance was fairly pedestrian. He didn't make any huge mistakes, and he didn't blow it...but that doesn't make him the second coming of Peyton Manning. Ainge is pretty much what he was last year...a good enough but not great QB.
Tennessee plays against Florida, LSU, and Georgia this year...watch for Tennessee to be held to less than 10 points in each of those games.
(3) Cal was overrated.
Let's get this straight...no team in the Pac 10 is ever overrated. Ever. When a Pac 10 team gets national attention, it's with good reason. Cal is no exception. This team is very, very good.
They do, however, have some glaring flaws that were exposed by Tennessee. Their offensive scheme does not match their personnel. They have a weakness at corner opposite Hughes. Their QB position is unsettled. These are problems that Tennessee did a great job of exploiting, but they do not mean that Cal doesn't deserve the national spotlight this year. If Cal can put together an offensive scheme that matches their personnel and put Bundy in at corner until the light switches on for Syd'Quan Thompson, Cal is capable of running the table going forward. More realistically, Cal is probably looking at a 9-3 season, which should still put them in the top 20. On the other hand, if Cal can't get its act together, this year could be a disaster for the program.
(4) See! The Pac 10 is soft!
Come on. Unlike most power conferences, the Pac 10 actually bothered to slate decent competition in week 1, and went 6-2 in out-of-conference play (the two losses being conference doormat WSU getting beaten by #4 Auburn and Cal's loss). The wins include USC's pounding of Arkansas for the second straight year (on what is supposed to be a rebuilding year for them), UCLA dominating a pretty good Utah team, and Arizona winning against BYU, a bowl team last year who will likely go bowling again this year. These are not Division I-AA teams that the Pac 10 is beating up on. These are quality opponents.
Bottom line: the fact that Syd'Quan Thompson hasn't learned how to tackle yet does not speak to the talent level of an entire conference. That conclusion is absolutely ridiculous. Unfortunately, perception is reality when it comes to the level of respect a conference gets, and a lot of armchair quarterbacks are going to read the score from Vols/Bears and conclude that the Pac 10 doesn't deserve respect.
The Pac 10 will have a strong year. USC has reloaded and is a title contender. Cal should be able to pull it together. Oregon looks extremely good and is a dark horse to win the conference in a year of Pac 10 parity. Arizona State, as usual, has one of the best offensive attacks in the country. Arizona is looking like an up-and-comer with Mike Stoops at the helm. Washington and Stanford should be turning it around soon as well. The Pac 10 is a strong conference this year, and will show it when the bowls come. Unfortunately, we will probably have to endure a lot of stupid comments about the Pac 10 for the remainder of the season, and it's largely because of this game.
Syd'Quan Thompson can't tackle, therefore the entire Pac 10 conference is weak. Thanks, experts.
posted by AdmiralLando at 10:54 AM
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