Thursday, May 04, 2006

Dorsey for Dilfer, Young QB's, and the Chargers

Today, the 49ers got Trent Dilfer for useless QB Ken Dorsey and a draft pick. The articles I have read say that the 49ers were acquiring a backup for Alex Smith. I'm skeptical. I think they acquired their new starting QB until they can come up with a graceful way to send last year's #1 overall pick packing.

Dilfer is not a great QB, but he's not that bad, either. He won't win the game for you, but he also won't lose it for you. If the 49ers do the right thing here and start Dilfer right away (or at least start him by Week 3 or so), they could move out of the cellar and win six games this year.

I'm not normally the sort of person to rush to judge a young QB. It's a tough position to play, especially when you are on a bad team and constantly running for your life. I think Joey Harrington, for example, still hasn't had a fair chance to show what he's capable of. I think Kyle Boller still could be a solid NFL QB, if he can regain his confidence and get some help. I think David Carr is an above average QB already, but doesn't have much to show for it because he's in a terrible situation. Alex Smith is in a worse situation, but I just don't see the potential with him. Bottom line...Trent Green is not coming to San Francisco to tutor Alex Smith. He's coming to keep the QB seat warm until the 49ers can find their real QB of the future.

A few years ago, the guy in Joey Harrington's shoes was named Drew Brees...everyone has already decided he doesn't cut it, but he obviously hasn't had a real chance to succeed. The San Diego Chargers were getting ready to throw him under a bus and roll out the red carpet for Eli Manning. Instead, Manning snubbed the Chargers, the Chargers wound up with a kid who, in my opinion, will be better than Eli Manning (although Manning has been better than I thought he would be), and Drew Brees became a Pro Bowler. The irony is that now that he is coming off of a major injury (the same one that has rendered Chad Pennington a lame duck), he's getting paid what he was worth before...and he isn't worth that now. The Saints really shot themselves in the foot with the Brees deal. It's a good thing Reggie Bush will be there to sell some tickets, because they are looking at being a losing team for the next several years. The Saints just brought in Jamie Martin, and the sooner he's taking snaps with the starting team, the better.

Meanwhile, the Chargers did some addition by subtraction by getting rid of the suddenly overrated Brees, and making way for Phillip Rivers. Eli might look like Peyton, but Phillip plays like Peyton. The Chargers are one star receiver away from dominating the AFC West.

3 Comments:

Blogger AdmiralLando said...

Did I say Trent Green? I meant Trent Dilfer. It's getting late. Past my bedtime.

11:00 PM  
Blogger AdmiralLando said...

Hockey? What's that? I'm sorry...I'm an American. I don't watch hockey.

Alex Smith's success in college football was clearly system-related. The spread exploited his athleticism and minimized his weaknesses, like his limited ability to check down, hit less than wide open receivers, make quick decisions, and avoid a pass rush while staying in the pocket. None of these things are easy, but all are necessary to be an NFL QB. Even Mike Vick can do it, although he didn't have to in college and barely has to now. Alex Smith is no Mike Vick. He needs those skills, and he doesn't appear to be making much progress toward them.

Cal's decision to go toward a spread offense worries me. Tedford had a very effective NFL style offense with Aaron Rogers at the helm, and I think Nathan Longshore would thrive in a similar offense. Additionally, the spread would only serve to neutralize the elite running back talent that Cal has been able to recruit, as well as minimize the outstanding run blocking that Cal has had. Having said that, Cal has a couple of young guns, Kevin Riley (currently redshirted) and Kyle Reed (redshirt freshman) who appear to be the future of Cal's QB position, and both of whom would thrive in a spread offense that exploits their athleticism and spreads out defenses.

Whether the spread will impact Tedford's ability to recruit top QB talent is an interesting question. I think it would just change the nature of the talent he is able to recruit. Dual threat guys will be more likely to come to Cal, and gunslingers like Nate Longshore, Kyle Boller and the like will be less attracted to Cal.

I don't think that will be too detrminental to Cal's ability to recruit top talent. Tedford's QB's already have something of a reputation as college system QB's who don't succeed in the NFL. I disagree with that thinking (except as applied to Akili Smith), but it's there. I don't know if going to a spread would necessarily make it much worse. Aaron Rogers currently being in a can't win situation is what's really going to hurt the draft prospects of future Cal QB's, because he's going to be lumped in with Harrington and Boller and join the I-never-had-a-chance-to-succeed-but-everyone-thinks-I-suck club. He'll be yet another example, from NFL scouts' perspectives, of a Tedford QB bust, and yet another example, from my perspective, of an unfair and absurd application of that label.

I thought I may have beaten the dead horse that is the draft with my last blog, but I guess a ranking of some sort in the next week or so is not a bad idea. So watch out for that.

College football preview? It's pretty early. Maybe I'll do a Pac-10 preview soon.

12:23 PM  
Blogger Matto said...

Football!

9:48 PM  

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