NFL Draft 2006
The most recent major event in sports (other than basketball playoffs, which I don't really consider a big deal until at least the second round, and various things going on in baseball, like Barry Bonds nearing Babe Ruth's home run mark, which I think we have all heard more than enough about) is the NFL draft. Here are a few opinions I have about the draft that I think may differ from conventional wisdom:
1) The Texans taking Mario Williams over Reggie Bush wasn't a bad move. It was a conservative move by a team that can't afford to make mistakes with first round picks. The hype over Reggie Bush isn't completely out of control. There's talk of him changing the game, of being a guy who is a threat to score whenever he gets anywhere near the ball, and so on. It's nonsense. Reggie Bush will be a good, but not great, running back in the NFL. All things being equal, I frankly think LenDale White is the better NFL back. Sure, Bush put up ridiculous numbers at USC, but what was he really playing against? Bush made his name by outrunning Pac-10 linebackers, few of whom are any good. If you watch Reggie Bush's games against Cal, the only team other than USC in the Pac-10 with a decent defense in the last two years, you will find that Bush didn't do much damage...and White did, because he can run you over and break tackles. I just don't see Reggie Bush outrunning as many linebackers on the NFL level. His moves can only take him so far against a skilled open field tackler, and he's not strong enough to break a lot of tackles. I see Reggie Bush as more Warrick Dunn than Emmit Smith. Look around the NFL and tell me how many starting running backs weigh less than 210. And if they weigh around 210, they are 5' 8". Bush will need to put on weight to be a back of significance...and when he does, he will lose a little of that quickness, and settle into the role of being a good, but not great, NFL running back.
Meanwhile, this Mario Williams kid looks like a beast...and in today's NFL, it's all about controlling the line of scrimmage. Mario Williams is going to help the Texans do that. Everyone is looking at what the Texans missed out on rather than looking at what they got. The shelf life of a good RB in the NFL these days is about 6 years. A franchise player at DE can hold down the fort and scare the hell out of the opposing QB for a good 12 years. Bottom line...this pick is not the disaster everyone is making it out to be, except maybe in terms of PR and marketing.
Am I saying I would have picked Bush over Williams? No. I would have tried harder to trade down. Someone in the NFL must have been in love with Reggie Bush enough to give up some value for him. If I couldn't get a trade and I were the GM of the Texans, I probably would have picked Bush to sell tickets, knowing that Williams might be the better choice if winning football games for the next 10 years were my only motivation.
2) I have a feeling that Matt Leinart is going to make nine teams very sorry that they didn't pick him in this year's draft. I don't know why, but Leinart just has thost intangible qualities that everyone looks for in a QB. He reminds me of a young Tom Brady, except much more athletically gifted. I think the teams that will most regret passing on Leinart are the Titans (more on that later), the Jets (Leinart and N.Y. was a match made in heaven, and Pennington is no longer capable of performing at an NFL level), the Bills (J.P. Losman is awful, and they don't have anyone else), and the Lions (they're giving up on Harrington, and the cupboard is pretty bare behind him). And maybe the Raiders, although I think Al Davis is either thinking that Andrew Walter is the answer (which he very well could be), or that he'll get his franchise QB of the future next year (Brady Quinn?). Meanwhile, although it lost him some money, Leinart has to be happy about being second string behind glass jaw Kurt Warner for a year or so, and then inheriting what looks to be the most explosive offense in the NFL by around 2008, assuming they can retain their current personnel.
3) I'm really unhappy with the Raiders for passing on Winston Justice in the second round. They desperately need O-Line help, and Justice was gift wrapped for them. Once the Raiders passed on Justice to take a project linebacker who will not make an immediate impact (and I think will probably never make an impact), it took the Eagles about 20 seconds to trade up and snatch him.
4) I'm at least a little surprised nobody took a chance on Marcus Vick. He's a very talented kid, although obviously too cocky, even for a QB. However, a good coach can knock him down a few pegs and turn him into a quality NFL QB. I think he's well worth a seventh round pick. How many seventh round picks make the team anyway? If I were Al Davis, I would have taken him with the last pick in the draft. Instead they took some WR from Maine who obviously won't make the team. WR is the one position where the Raiders have some depth.
5) The management of the Titans has lost their collective minds. You heard it here first...Vince Young is a bust. As much as I liked Vince Young in college, and as talented as I think he is, the bottom line is that the guy is not going to be able to read NFL defenses. He ran a dumbed down college offense for a reason. His legs are only going to be able to save him in the NFL so much. Norm Chow has his work cut out for him in training this kid to be at all useful in the NFL. Don't get me wrong...I'm not one of those people who thinks his funny throwing motion is a problem. Vince Young had one of the best arms in college football last year. He can throw it far, he can throw it accurately, and he can hit his receiver on tough routes and throw a catchable ball. His mobility could be a huge asset. I just don't think he has the requisite brain power to be a successful NFL QB. He might never start a single game.
6) I didn't think much of Cutler until Shanahan moved up to the 11th pick to grab him. If Shanahan thinks he's good, I'll take his word for it. I think Plummer's days as the Bronco starter might be numbered.
7) I don't care what anyone says...Kiwanuka was a great pick for the Giants at the end of the first round. Very solid. Strahan isn't getting any younger, and this kid is going to bring some serious talent to the Giants D Line.
8) I really, really like A.J. Hawk. He's going to be a force at the NFL level. He'll be a fixture in the Pro Bowl within a few years. Unfortunately, I think he's going to be playing for a very bad team for a while. Favre is done, and I think Aaron Rogers will be good, but not nearly good enough to save an otherwise talentless offense.
9) Steals from the third and fourth rounds: Ashton Youboty, CB, Buffalo; Dusty Dvoracek, DL, Chicago; Derek Hagan, WR, Miami; Dominique Byrd, TE, St. Louis; Max Jean-Giles, OG, Philadelphia; Ko Simpson, S, Buffalo; Elvis Dumervil, DE, Denver. Watch out for these guys.
Come to think of it, Buffalo had a decent draft, even though they completely blew it in the first round.
10) Steals from the fifth, sixth, and seventh rounds: Ryan O'Callohan, OG, New England; Omar Jacobs, QB, Pittsburg (although he'll likely never get his shot and wind up a career backup); Mike Hass, WR, New Orleans; Todd Watkins, WR, Arizona
Now all we have to do is wait 7 years or so to see if these thoughts withstand the test of time. I think most of them will.
1) The Texans taking Mario Williams over Reggie Bush wasn't a bad move. It was a conservative move by a team that can't afford to make mistakes with first round picks. The hype over Reggie Bush isn't completely out of control. There's talk of him changing the game, of being a guy who is a threat to score whenever he gets anywhere near the ball, and so on. It's nonsense. Reggie Bush will be a good, but not great, running back in the NFL. All things being equal, I frankly think LenDale White is the better NFL back. Sure, Bush put up ridiculous numbers at USC, but what was he really playing against? Bush made his name by outrunning Pac-10 linebackers, few of whom are any good. If you watch Reggie Bush's games against Cal, the only team other than USC in the Pac-10 with a decent defense in the last two years, you will find that Bush didn't do much damage...and White did, because he can run you over and break tackles. I just don't see Reggie Bush outrunning as many linebackers on the NFL level. His moves can only take him so far against a skilled open field tackler, and he's not strong enough to break a lot of tackles. I see Reggie Bush as more Warrick Dunn than Emmit Smith. Look around the NFL and tell me how many starting running backs weigh less than 210. And if they weigh around 210, they are 5' 8". Bush will need to put on weight to be a back of significance...and when he does, he will lose a little of that quickness, and settle into the role of being a good, but not great, NFL running back.
Meanwhile, this Mario Williams kid looks like a beast...and in today's NFL, it's all about controlling the line of scrimmage. Mario Williams is going to help the Texans do that. Everyone is looking at what the Texans missed out on rather than looking at what they got. The shelf life of a good RB in the NFL these days is about 6 years. A franchise player at DE can hold down the fort and scare the hell out of the opposing QB for a good 12 years. Bottom line...this pick is not the disaster everyone is making it out to be, except maybe in terms of PR and marketing.
Am I saying I would have picked Bush over Williams? No. I would have tried harder to trade down. Someone in the NFL must have been in love with Reggie Bush enough to give up some value for him. If I couldn't get a trade and I were the GM of the Texans, I probably would have picked Bush to sell tickets, knowing that Williams might be the better choice if winning football games for the next 10 years were my only motivation.
2) I have a feeling that Matt Leinart is going to make nine teams very sorry that they didn't pick him in this year's draft. I don't know why, but Leinart just has thost intangible qualities that everyone looks for in a QB. He reminds me of a young Tom Brady, except much more athletically gifted. I think the teams that will most regret passing on Leinart are the Titans (more on that later), the Jets (Leinart and N.Y. was a match made in heaven, and Pennington is no longer capable of performing at an NFL level), the Bills (J.P. Losman is awful, and they don't have anyone else), and the Lions (they're giving up on Harrington, and the cupboard is pretty bare behind him). And maybe the Raiders, although I think Al Davis is either thinking that Andrew Walter is the answer (which he very well could be), or that he'll get his franchise QB of the future next year (Brady Quinn?). Meanwhile, although it lost him some money, Leinart has to be happy about being second string behind glass jaw Kurt Warner for a year or so, and then inheriting what looks to be the most explosive offense in the NFL by around 2008, assuming they can retain their current personnel.
3) I'm really unhappy with the Raiders for passing on Winston Justice in the second round. They desperately need O-Line help, and Justice was gift wrapped for them. Once the Raiders passed on Justice to take a project linebacker who will not make an immediate impact (and I think will probably never make an impact), it took the Eagles about 20 seconds to trade up and snatch him.
4) I'm at least a little surprised nobody took a chance on Marcus Vick. He's a very talented kid, although obviously too cocky, even for a QB. However, a good coach can knock him down a few pegs and turn him into a quality NFL QB. I think he's well worth a seventh round pick. How many seventh round picks make the team anyway? If I were Al Davis, I would have taken him with the last pick in the draft. Instead they took some WR from Maine who obviously won't make the team. WR is the one position where the Raiders have some depth.
5) The management of the Titans has lost their collective minds. You heard it here first...Vince Young is a bust. As much as I liked Vince Young in college, and as talented as I think he is, the bottom line is that the guy is not going to be able to read NFL defenses. He ran a dumbed down college offense for a reason. His legs are only going to be able to save him in the NFL so much. Norm Chow has his work cut out for him in training this kid to be at all useful in the NFL. Don't get me wrong...I'm not one of those people who thinks his funny throwing motion is a problem. Vince Young had one of the best arms in college football last year. He can throw it far, he can throw it accurately, and he can hit his receiver on tough routes and throw a catchable ball. His mobility could be a huge asset. I just don't think he has the requisite brain power to be a successful NFL QB. He might never start a single game.
6) I didn't think much of Cutler until Shanahan moved up to the 11th pick to grab him. If Shanahan thinks he's good, I'll take his word for it. I think Plummer's days as the Bronco starter might be numbered.
7) I don't care what anyone says...Kiwanuka was a great pick for the Giants at the end of the first round. Very solid. Strahan isn't getting any younger, and this kid is going to bring some serious talent to the Giants D Line.
8) I really, really like A.J. Hawk. He's going to be a force at the NFL level. He'll be a fixture in the Pro Bowl within a few years. Unfortunately, I think he's going to be playing for a very bad team for a while. Favre is done, and I think Aaron Rogers will be good, but not nearly good enough to save an otherwise talentless offense.
9) Steals from the third and fourth rounds: Ashton Youboty, CB, Buffalo; Dusty Dvoracek, DL, Chicago; Derek Hagan, WR, Miami; Dominique Byrd, TE, St. Louis; Max Jean-Giles, OG, Philadelphia; Ko Simpson, S, Buffalo; Elvis Dumervil, DE, Denver. Watch out for these guys.
Come to think of it, Buffalo had a decent draft, even though they completely blew it in the first round.
10) Steals from the fifth, sixth, and seventh rounds: Ryan O'Callohan, OG, New England; Omar Jacobs, QB, Pittsburg (although he'll likely never get his shot and wind up a career backup); Mike Hass, WR, New Orleans; Todd Watkins, WR, Arizona
Now all we have to do is wait 7 years or so to see if these thoughts withstand the test of time. I think most of them will.
posted by AdmiralLando at 11:23 PM
2 Comments:
I can't fault the Texans for going with what their scouts said instead of what their fans said. Ultimately, the fans want to win, and if they really believe Super Mario will help more than Bush, then it was a bold move that I respect.
I'm sure the Texans tried to deal the first pick to the Jets and/or the Packers, and probably got low-balled because both of those teams knew what the Texans knew...that they were in a position to pick a player that would help their team more than Reggie Bush. If they had dropped any lower than the 5 pick, they are trading out of the elite players and taking a second tier, non-blue chip guy.
Imagine how much better a position the 49ers would be in right now if they had ignored their fans and the so-called "experts" and taken anyone else who went in the top 10 (with the exception of Pac Man, who is well on his way to being one of the top 5 football players in prison). They could sure use Braylon Edwards right now, and they would probably be starting Matt Leinart next year at QB. I'll take Leinart and Edwards instead of Alex Smith and Vernon Davis any day. They certainly could have endured one more year of Rattay at the helm...I'm sure he would have been a lot better than Alex Smith.
The point here is that the consensus is often wrong, and I think that this is one of those times. Bush looked like some sort of deity against Fresno State, but let's remember that he was playing against Fresno State, not the New England Patriots, or Indianapolis Colts, or even the Oakland Raiders. One college game does not make an NFL career. (See, e.g., Vince Young).
One thing I definitely agree with...picking Mario over Reggie was a PR disaster. Mario will put far fewer butts in seats than Reggie. No doubt about that. That's the main reason why I would have picked Reggie.
My point here is that from a pure football standpoint, I think Mario is going to be a more valuable addition to the Texans than Reggie would have been. I didn't see anything in Reggie Bush's college career to merit comparisons to guys like Jordan and LeBron. Reggie was obvious, but not LeBron James obvious. A lot of scouts think the same thing I think...that he will need to bulk up to succeed in the NFL, and that's going to cause him to lose a step and lose what makes Reggie Reggie...and the result will be an above average but far less than legendary running back. Meanwhile, Super Mario can give Peyton Manning and Tom Brady nightmares for the next five years. Last year, there wasn't a single guy to worry about on the Texans D. Now there's at least one.
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